Bubble Craps Dice Control
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Related Articles:
Bubble craps.don’t pass. Brayden11 EOG Dedicated. Dec 4, 2020 #11. Dec 4, 2020 #11. John Kelly said. Any edge in dice control, which is very difficult to.
*Overall posts counts are down on the site so the end is coming. Add in the arrival of the Dice Control/ Dice Influence crowd and the guys selling winning Roulette systems and it’s all over. The site probably never had a shot being based on a lie to get members from the start. But like the scammers on here, at least the owners tried.
*I will also show the effect on the house edge of varying degrees of dice control and various betting combinations. The results should prove interesting to you. Join Dominator’s Insider’s Club and get Two Great Books on Craps. Get all the latest updates and events from GTC, including information on current craps and dice control seminars.
I wrote a about a few tips in my main dice setting guide but I will go though a few more that I did not mention and explain in further detail on how to get better at controlling the dice. Much of this advice will be helpful to get you into a good state of mind when going to the casino and to become more confident in your skills once you have already learned the basics.
The first thing you will notice when you place craps is the social environment which involves lots of noise, excitement and also distractions. This is one thing that novice players need to get used to. Even intermediate and advanced players can get caught up and lose concentration of their dice throwing abilities. So the first tip and word of advice is to start off by wagering the minimum table limit bet until you get warmed up enough.
A few things to look for when you are warming up are to see how far the dice bounce after hitting the opposite padded wall. If they are really bouncy, this is bad. If they do not bounce as much, then the dice and table are good to stay at. Sometimes casinos change the padding or the clothed felt on the table and this can alter the way the dice get thrown. The more they bounce around, the less control you have. Once you find a good table, it is best to stick with that table and keep going there whenever you play at the casino.
One thing to watch for is when the dealer changes the dice. The dice eventually get worn down and need to be replaced with ones with sharp edges and corners as well as crisp faces. Typically the dice will be changed at the end of a shift. It turns out that these fresh dice are great for dice setting and you can get more control because they have a good grip and have a good reaction when they hit the table or wall. They even work better when players try to use the backspin technique. So it is a good tip to join and throw the dice when they are fresh.
Now for a few tips regarding the social aspects of the game. Typically, players will side up with the shooter and bet for them to win. These players are known as ’right’ players since they bet with the shooter on the pass line and come bar. So naturally, these players are going to be cheering on the shooter (the person throwing the dice) for them to win.
So if you are a ’wrong’ player, you would be better on the don’t pass and don’t come bets, which are against the shooter. Many times you will also be betting against everyone else there too. Honestly though, the don’t pass line bet is better than the pass line bet in terms of house edge and mathematical probabilities, so it is up to you if you want to give into peer pressure or follow the best odds. Eventually, you may get people to walk away from the table which will speed up the game. This is beneficial for dice setters since they get more chances at throwing the dice when there are fewer people around.
The best advantage to a dice setter is to be in control of the dice as much as possible. That means being the shooter and throwing many rolls per hour. In order to do this, it would be best to play on a table with fewer people so that you get your turn at the dice more often. There are some advantages to playing on a table that is crowded though. This is because there are possibly other shooters who know how to control the dice as well and you can make some more money wagering on them. Still, you will want to make sure they have good skills or those equal or better to your own.
Another thing to be cautious of is playing on a table with no other players except yourself. If you are alone, then you will be under the exclusive watchful eye of 4 dealers. This is one of the disadvantages of playing on an empty table. The advice is to bring a friend or a few friends with you or just play on a more crowded table. Otherwise you do not want to draw too much attention from the wrong people. If you move onto a new crowded table, bet with the shooter if you want to take your turn at the dice relatively quickly.
In case you were wondering, a typical craps table goes through about 50 to 100 rolls per hour and sometimes 150 if things are going fast. Most of the time is used when dealers have to collect and pay out the winnings. To speed things up, look for table that doesn’t offer complicated bets or has fewer bets on the layout. Also, do not make odd sized prop bets. Make bets in whole numbers or even numbers like $10 or $20 instead of $5.50 or $17. This will make it easier for the dealers to pay out the bets and give you more throws per hour.
Tipping the dealer in craps is extremely good etiquette since these dealers have to do a lot of work compared to other casino games. If you tip the dealer, they will also go above and beyond for you as well. Some benefits that the stickman will do for you is align the dice and set them in your usual way before give you the dice. They may also offer other gaming advice such as if accidently made the wrong bet.Tips and Advice for Precision Shooter Dice Setting
If you are a precision shooter, there are a few things you should pay attention to since these tips can greatly improve your dice control at a specific craps table. One of the first things you should look for is if there is any padding under the table felt. Believe it or not, thicker and softer padding is actually better than no padding at all. The soft padding will have the effects of ’grabbing’ the dice and keeping them from moving too much, which is a major goal for precision dice control.
One way to check the padding is to listen to the dice. If they making a crackling noise like hitting wood or something hard, then this is bad padding. You can also test it by touching the table with your finger. Ideally, the dice should make almost no noise when they hit the table, which is a great indicator of soft padding.
The age of the felt itself is also a big factor in precision dice setting. Usually, the older the table, the better. This is because the older felt gets worn and tends to get the dice to stick on it. This is ideal for dice control because you want the dice to cease movement quickly in order to get better control of them. One thing to note is that the felt gets changed about once per year usually and it is good advice to wait about one or two months after new felt comes in if you want extra precision.
Believe it or not, even table lengths can be a factor. A normal craps table is about 12 feet long but some are 14 feet and others are even smaller. This is only a factor that depends on what table you like best. If you prefer the long table, go for it. Typically, dice setters can adapt to new tables as well. Now for some of the bets on the table, the free odds bet is one of the best in the house. Obviously my best tip is to wager the maximum allowed odds and this applies to both precision shooters and just regular craps players.
Normally, the rules of the game require that you throw the dice hard enough to hit the other end of the table. There are pyramid shaped bumps on the padding along the walls of the craps table. These bumps are to ensure even more randomness of the throw by altering the axis of your dice when they bounce off these surfaces. One way to counteract this effect is to learn how to put a backspin on the dice. When doing a backspin, you want the dice to make contact with the table before hitting these pyramids in order to counteract the forward momentum properly.
A problem might arise if you have a short height. The original craps table was designed for taller players and this can make it harder to lean over the table and throw the dice properly. This actually makes it harder for everyone to control the dice as well and this is not an uncommon problem. Don’t hesitate to ask the casino for a block or step stool to stand on as a platform. Casinos are usually aware of this kind of problem and they have these platforms readily available upon request.
Following all of these tips will greatly improve your craps game and dice control skills. They will also make your experience much more enjoyable and less stressful as this awesome game should be anyways.
Play craps online at Cherry Jackpot.
The Iron Cross
Over the years there has been a lot of talk about a betting system called the Iron Cross. The attraction to this betting system is straight-forward you will get paid whenever any number rolls, except for the seven. Imagine, when the 4 hits, you get paid - when the 5 hits - you get paid, when the 6, 8, 9, or 10 hits you get paid. Even when craps numbers hit you get paid. You make money on the 2, 3, 11, and 12. If you do the math, you know there are only(?) 6 ways to make the 7 out of 36 possibilities, so 30 out of 36 combinations result in a win.
The Iron Cross bet consists of place bets on the 5, 6, and 8 and a field bet. The field bet wins if you throw a 2, 3, 4, 9, 10, 11 or 12. When the field bet loses, one of the place bets wins giving the player a small profit except of course if a 7 appears. When that happens the player loses all the bets.
I can recall many times when I had a pass line bet with odds and placed the 6 and 8 and threw number after number without collecting anything. The Iron Cross bet will definitely eliminate that situation. The only time you will not win money is when you throw the 7.
Sounds like an ideal situation, doesnt it?
And it would be, were it not for the fact that when you throw the 7, you lose all your bets.
The question, then, is how good (or bad) a bet is the Iron Cross. Is winning better than 83 percent of your bets a good deal?
Lets assume we are playing a random game. Conventional wisdom states that hedge bets cause you to lose more money. If you ordinarily bet $6 on the 6 and 8, you have $12 at the mercy of a 1.52 percent house edge. Multiplying the two you are destined to lose about 18 cents on the $12. Now, if you add a place bet on the 5 for $5, you add 4 percent of it or 20 cents. Add still another bet on the field for $5 and you add 5.56 percent of it or another 27.8 cents. You have more money at risk with higher house edges so you will lose more money period.
But what if you ordinarily bet $12 on the 6 and 8 for a total of $24 wagered and you would rather bet $22 on the Iron Cross? Your bets would be $6 each on the 6 and 8 and $5 each on the 5 and field. Here you are betting slightly less money and getting many more wins than before. What is the house edge (there will be a house edge, not a player edge) and what can you expect to lose per dollar bet?
This much we know:
*The 6 and 8 have a 1.52 percent house edge working on $24.
*The 5 has a 4 percent house edge working on $5.
*The field bet has a 5.56 percent house edge working on $5.
Intuitively, the edge on the total bet of $22 should be between 1.52 and 5.56 percent. So lets calculate the exact edge. I want to acknowledge Dan Pronovost, the creator of the Smart Craps software, for his assistance in the following calculations.
Suggestion: If you are only interested in the answer and not the mathematical proof, you can skip ahead to ’The Result’.
The Math:
Alright, if you are still with me, here comes the technical stuff.
First, what do we mean by house edge? The simple to understand definition is:
Sum of all profit (or loss)
-----------------------------------
Sum of all bets made
Next, we need to come up with a way to apply this to the Iron Cross betting scheme. For this exercise we are using a $30 6 and 8, a $25 5 and a $25 field bet. Let’s look at the problem on a per roll basis:
Roll
Occurrences
Roll Frequency
Profit per roll
Pro-rated. Profit
2
1
2.78%
$50.00
$1.39
3
2
5.56%
$25.00
$1.39
4
3
8.33%
$25.00
$2.08
5
4
11.11%
$10.00
$1.11
6
5
13.89%
$10.00
$1.39
7
6
16.67%
-($110.00)
($18.33)
8
5
13.89%
$10.00
$1.39
9
4
11.11%
$25.00
$2.78
10
3
8.33%
$25.00
$2.08
11
2
5.56%
$25.00
$1.39
12
1
2.78%
$50.00
$1.39
Total:
36
100.00%
($1.94)
A win on the 2 and 12, is paid 2 to 1 on the field bet so our net profit is $50 (2 times the $25 bet). On a 6, we lose the $25 field bet, but get back $35 on the placed 6, netting $10. On a 3, we win the field bet at even money ($25).
We now know the profit for each roll. But each roll occurs in a different proportion, so let’s multiply by the ’Roll Frequency’ column to yield the ’Pro-rated profit’ column above. Then, we can sum this up to yield the average net loss per roll of $1.94.
Remember, however, that in order to be counted as a win in the amount in the ’Profit per Roll’ column, we need to take the bet down. For example, we have a $25 field bet and a 3 is rolled. If we simply collect the $25 and leave the field bet up, we do not have a $25 profit, we are even on that $25 bet. What we are doing in reality is collecting our winnings and bet and then replacing the bet. The New Bets After Roll column in the following table details these amounts.
Roll
Occurrences
Roll Frequency
New bets after roll
Pro-rated bets/roll
2
1
2.78%
$25.00
$0.69
3
2
5.56%
$25.00
$1.39
4
3
8.33%
$25.00
$2.08
5
4
11.11%
$50.00
$5.56
6
5
13.89%
$55.00
$7.64
7
6
16.67%
$110.00
$18.33
8
5
13.89%
$55.00
$7.64
9
4
11.11%
$25.00
$2.78
10
3
8.33%
$25.00
$2.08
11
2
5.56%
$25.00
$1.39
12
1
2.78%
$25.00
$0.69
Total:
36
100.00%
$50.28
And once again, we need to pro-rate the new bets based on the roll’s frequency, yielding the ’Pro-rated bets/roll’. Summing these up, we get an average of $50.28 in new bets every roll.
So back to the edge equation the net loss per roll is $1.94, and the average ’New bets per roll’ is $50.28. Divide these two, and we get an actual casino edge of 3.87% over the player.Bubble Craps Dice Controller
The Simulation
Using Smart Craps and script betting, the Iron Cross betting scheme can be modeled. After 10 millions execution rounds, the empirical edge is -3.831340%, which is sufficiently close to the mathematical edge we computed above.
A Check and Audit
Not sure this approach makes sense? Let’s use the same approach to analyze a $30 6 place bet (1.52% house edge):
Roll
Roll Frequency
Profit per roll
Pro-rated. Profit
New bets after roll
Pro-rated bets/roll
2
2.78%
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
3
5.56%
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
4
8.33%
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
5
11.11%
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
6
13.89%
$35.00
$4.86
$30.00
$4.17
7
16.67%
($30.00)
($5.00)
$30.00
$5.00
8
13.89%
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
9
11.11%
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
10
8.33%
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
11
5.56%
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
12
2.78%
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
Total:
100.00%
($0.14)
$9.17
Using the totals from above, -$0.14 / 9.17 = 1.52% just like all the experts say.Craps Dice Control
The Results:Casino Craps Dice
If you came directly here and bypassed the proof above, you either completely trust me, or you get lost easily in math and charts and tables. Either way, the results are accurate.
We surmised early on that the house edge for the Iron Cross bet would be between 1.52 percent and 5.56 percent and we were right. Betting one unit ($25 in the proof) on the Iron Cross, carries a 3.87 percent house edge when both the 2 and 12 pay double in the field bet. Lets check the answer to the original question. Is it better to bet $12 each on the 6 and 8, or $22 on the Iron Cross?
*6 and 8: $24 * 1.52% = about 36 cents lost.
*Iron Cross: $22 * 3.87% = about 85 cents lost even though less money is at risk.
Even though you are getting paid on 30 out of 36 rolls, the ’tax’ on those winnings amounts to about 2 times as much money. This is not a good bet. No matter how tempting is may be prudent players will avoid it.
In the next installment on the Iron Cross I will look at what happens when you vary the amounts bet on the individual components of the Iron Cross. I will also show the effect on the house edge of varying degrees of dice control and various betting combinations. The results should prove interesting to you.
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Related Articles:
Bubble craps.don’t pass. Brayden11 EOG Dedicated. Dec 4, 2020 #11. Dec 4, 2020 #11. John Kelly said. Any edge in dice control, which is very difficult to.
*Overall posts counts are down on the site so the end is coming. Add in the arrival of the Dice Control/ Dice Influence crowd and the guys selling winning Roulette systems and it’s all over. The site probably never had a shot being based on a lie to get members from the start. But like the scammers on here, at least the owners tried.
*I will also show the effect on the house edge of varying degrees of dice control and various betting combinations. The results should prove interesting to you. Join Dominator’s Insider’s Club and get Two Great Books on Craps. Get all the latest updates and events from GTC, including information on current craps and dice control seminars.
I wrote a about a few tips in my main dice setting guide but I will go though a few more that I did not mention and explain in further detail on how to get better at controlling the dice. Much of this advice will be helpful to get you into a good state of mind when going to the casino and to become more confident in your skills once you have already learned the basics.
The first thing you will notice when you place craps is the social environment which involves lots of noise, excitement and also distractions. This is one thing that novice players need to get used to. Even intermediate and advanced players can get caught up and lose concentration of their dice throwing abilities. So the first tip and word of advice is to start off by wagering the minimum table limit bet until you get warmed up enough.
A few things to look for when you are warming up are to see how far the dice bounce after hitting the opposite padded wall. If they are really bouncy, this is bad. If they do not bounce as much, then the dice and table are good to stay at. Sometimes casinos change the padding or the clothed felt on the table and this can alter the way the dice get thrown. The more they bounce around, the less control you have. Once you find a good table, it is best to stick with that table and keep going there whenever you play at the casino.
One thing to watch for is when the dealer changes the dice. The dice eventually get worn down and need to be replaced with ones with sharp edges and corners as well as crisp faces. Typically the dice will be changed at the end of a shift. It turns out that these fresh dice are great for dice setting and you can get more control because they have a good grip and have a good reaction when they hit the table or wall. They even work better when players try to use the backspin technique. So it is a good tip to join and throw the dice when they are fresh.
Now for a few tips regarding the social aspects of the game. Typically, players will side up with the shooter and bet for them to win. These players are known as ’right’ players since they bet with the shooter on the pass line and come bar. So naturally, these players are going to be cheering on the shooter (the person throwing the dice) for them to win.
So if you are a ’wrong’ player, you would be better on the don’t pass and don’t come bets, which are against the shooter. Many times you will also be betting against everyone else there too. Honestly though, the don’t pass line bet is better than the pass line bet in terms of house edge and mathematical probabilities, so it is up to you if you want to give into peer pressure or follow the best odds. Eventually, you may get people to walk away from the table which will speed up the game. This is beneficial for dice setters since they get more chances at throwing the dice when there are fewer people around.
The best advantage to a dice setter is to be in control of the dice as much as possible. That means being the shooter and throwing many rolls per hour. In order to do this, it would be best to play on a table with fewer people so that you get your turn at the dice more often. There are some advantages to playing on a table that is crowded though. This is because there are possibly other shooters who know how to control the dice as well and you can make some more money wagering on them. Still, you will want to make sure they have good skills or those equal or better to your own.
Another thing to be cautious of is playing on a table with no other players except yourself. If you are alone, then you will be under the exclusive watchful eye of 4 dealers. This is one of the disadvantages of playing on an empty table. The advice is to bring a friend or a few friends with you or just play on a more crowded table. Otherwise you do not want to draw too much attention from the wrong people. If you move onto a new crowded table, bet with the shooter if you want to take your turn at the dice relatively quickly.
In case you were wondering, a typical craps table goes through about 50 to 100 rolls per hour and sometimes 150 if things are going fast. Most of the time is used when dealers have to collect and pay out the winnings. To speed things up, look for table that doesn’t offer complicated bets or has fewer bets on the layout. Also, do not make odd sized prop bets. Make bets in whole numbers or even numbers like $10 or $20 instead of $5.50 or $17. This will make it easier for the dealers to pay out the bets and give you more throws per hour.
Tipping the dealer in craps is extremely good etiquette since these dealers have to do a lot of work compared to other casino games. If you tip the dealer, they will also go above and beyond for you as well. Some benefits that the stickman will do for you is align the dice and set them in your usual way before give you the dice. They may also offer other gaming advice such as if accidently made the wrong bet.Tips and Advice for Precision Shooter Dice Setting
If you are a precision shooter, there are a few things you should pay attention to since these tips can greatly improve your dice control at a specific craps table. One of the first things you should look for is if there is any padding under the table felt. Believe it or not, thicker and softer padding is actually better than no padding at all. The soft padding will have the effects of ’grabbing’ the dice and keeping them from moving too much, which is a major goal for precision dice control.
One way to check the padding is to listen to the dice. If they making a crackling noise like hitting wood or something hard, then this is bad padding. You can also test it by touching the table with your finger. Ideally, the dice should make almost no noise when they hit the table, which is a great indicator of soft padding.
The age of the felt itself is also a big factor in precision dice setting. Usually, the older the table, the better. This is because the older felt gets worn and tends to get the dice to stick on it. This is ideal for dice control because you want the dice to cease movement quickly in order to get better control of them. One thing to note is that the felt gets changed about once per year usually and it is good advice to wait about one or two months after new felt comes in if you want extra precision.
Believe it or not, even table lengths can be a factor. A normal craps table is about 12 feet long but some are 14 feet and others are even smaller. This is only a factor that depends on what table you like best. If you prefer the long table, go for it. Typically, dice setters can adapt to new tables as well. Now for some of the bets on the table, the free odds bet is one of the best in the house. Obviously my best tip is to wager the maximum allowed odds and this applies to both precision shooters and just regular craps players.
Normally, the rules of the game require that you throw the dice hard enough to hit the other end of the table. There are pyramid shaped bumps on the padding along the walls of the craps table. These bumps are to ensure even more randomness of the throw by altering the axis of your dice when they bounce off these surfaces. One way to counteract this effect is to learn how to put a backspin on the dice. When doing a backspin, you want the dice to make contact with the table before hitting these pyramids in order to counteract the forward momentum properly.
A problem might arise if you have a short height. The original craps table was designed for taller players and this can make it harder to lean over the table and throw the dice properly. This actually makes it harder for everyone to control the dice as well and this is not an uncommon problem. Don’t hesitate to ask the casino for a block or step stool to stand on as a platform. Casinos are usually aware of this kind of problem and they have these platforms readily available upon request.
Following all of these tips will greatly improve your craps game and dice control skills. They will also make your experience much more enjoyable and less stressful as this awesome game should be anyways.
Play craps online at Cherry Jackpot.
The Iron Cross
Over the years there has been a lot of talk about a betting system called the Iron Cross. The attraction to this betting system is straight-forward you will get paid whenever any number rolls, except for the seven. Imagine, when the 4 hits, you get paid - when the 5 hits - you get paid, when the 6, 8, 9, or 10 hits you get paid. Even when craps numbers hit you get paid. You make money on the 2, 3, 11, and 12. If you do the math, you know there are only(?) 6 ways to make the 7 out of 36 possibilities, so 30 out of 36 combinations result in a win.
The Iron Cross bet consists of place bets on the 5, 6, and 8 and a field bet. The field bet wins if you throw a 2, 3, 4, 9, 10, 11 or 12. When the field bet loses, one of the place bets wins giving the player a small profit except of course if a 7 appears. When that happens the player loses all the bets.
I can recall many times when I had a pass line bet with odds and placed the 6 and 8 and threw number after number without collecting anything. The Iron Cross bet will definitely eliminate that situation. The only time you will not win money is when you throw the 7.
Sounds like an ideal situation, doesnt it?
And it would be, were it not for the fact that when you throw the 7, you lose all your bets.
The question, then, is how good (or bad) a bet is the Iron Cross. Is winning better than 83 percent of your bets a good deal?
Lets assume we are playing a random game. Conventional wisdom states that hedge bets cause you to lose more money. If you ordinarily bet $6 on the 6 and 8, you have $12 at the mercy of a 1.52 percent house edge. Multiplying the two you are destined to lose about 18 cents on the $12. Now, if you add a place bet on the 5 for $5, you add 4 percent of it or 20 cents. Add still another bet on the field for $5 and you add 5.56 percent of it or another 27.8 cents. You have more money at risk with higher house edges so you will lose more money period.
But what if you ordinarily bet $12 on the 6 and 8 for a total of $24 wagered and you would rather bet $22 on the Iron Cross? Your bets would be $6 each on the 6 and 8 and $5 each on the 5 and field. Here you are betting slightly less money and getting many more wins than before. What is the house edge (there will be a house edge, not a player edge) and what can you expect to lose per dollar bet?
This much we know:
*The 6 and 8 have a 1.52 percent house edge working on $24.
*The 5 has a 4 percent house edge working on $5.
*The field bet has a 5.56 percent house edge working on $5.
Intuitively, the edge on the total bet of $22 should be between 1.52 and 5.56 percent. So lets calculate the exact edge. I want to acknowledge Dan Pronovost, the creator of the Smart Craps software, for his assistance in the following calculations.
Suggestion: If you are only interested in the answer and not the mathematical proof, you can skip ahead to ’The Result’.
The Math:
Alright, if you are still with me, here comes the technical stuff.
First, what do we mean by house edge? The simple to understand definition is:
Sum of all profit (or loss)
-----------------------------------
Sum of all bets made
Next, we need to come up with a way to apply this to the Iron Cross betting scheme. For this exercise we are using a $30 6 and 8, a $25 5 and a $25 field bet. Let’s look at the problem on a per roll basis:
Roll
Occurrences
Roll Frequency
Profit per roll
Pro-rated. Profit
2
1
2.78%
$50.00
$1.39
3
2
5.56%
$25.00
$1.39
4
3
8.33%
$25.00
$2.08
5
4
11.11%
$10.00
$1.11
6
5
13.89%
$10.00
$1.39
7
6
16.67%
-($110.00)
($18.33)
8
5
13.89%
$10.00
$1.39
9
4
11.11%
$25.00
$2.78
10
3
8.33%
$25.00
$2.08
11
2
5.56%
$25.00
$1.39
12
1
2.78%
$50.00
$1.39
Total:
36
100.00%
($1.94)
A win on the 2 and 12, is paid 2 to 1 on the field bet so our net profit is $50 (2 times the $25 bet). On a 6, we lose the $25 field bet, but get back $35 on the placed 6, netting $10. On a 3, we win the field bet at even money ($25).
We now know the profit for each roll. But each roll occurs in a different proportion, so let’s multiply by the ’Roll Frequency’ column to yield the ’Pro-rated profit’ column above. Then, we can sum this up to yield the average net loss per roll of $1.94.
Remember, however, that in order to be counted as a win in the amount in the ’Profit per Roll’ column, we need to take the bet down. For example, we have a $25 field bet and a 3 is rolled. If we simply collect the $25 and leave the field bet up, we do not have a $25 profit, we are even on that $25 bet. What we are doing in reality is collecting our winnings and bet and then replacing the bet. The New Bets After Roll column in the following table details these amounts.
Roll
Occurrences
Roll Frequency
New bets after roll
Pro-rated bets/roll
2
1
2.78%
$25.00
$0.69
3
2
5.56%
$25.00
$1.39
4
3
8.33%
$25.00
$2.08
5
4
11.11%
$50.00
$5.56
6
5
13.89%
$55.00
$7.64
7
6
16.67%
$110.00
$18.33
8
5
13.89%
$55.00
$7.64
9
4
11.11%
$25.00
$2.78
10
3
8.33%
$25.00
$2.08
11
2
5.56%
$25.00
$1.39
12
1
2.78%
$25.00
$0.69
Total:
36
100.00%
$50.28
And once again, we need to pro-rate the new bets based on the roll’s frequency, yielding the ’Pro-rated bets/roll’. Summing these up, we get an average of $50.28 in new bets every roll.
So back to the edge equation the net loss per roll is $1.94, and the average ’New bets per roll’ is $50.28. Divide these two, and we get an actual casino edge of 3.87% over the player.Bubble Craps Dice Controller
The Simulation
Using Smart Craps and script betting, the Iron Cross betting scheme can be modeled. After 10 millions execution rounds, the empirical edge is -3.831340%, which is sufficiently close to the mathematical edge we computed above.
A Check and Audit
Not sure this approach makes sense? Let’s use the same approach to analyze a $30 6 place bet (1.52% house edge):
Roll
Roll Frequency
Profit per roll
Pro-rated. Profit
New bets after roll
Pro-rated bets/roll
2
2.78%
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
3
5.56%
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
4
8.33%
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
5
11.11%
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
6
13.89%
$35.00
$4.86
$30.00
$4.17
7
16.67%
($30.00)
($5.00)
$30.00
$5.00
8
13.89%
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
9
11.11%
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
10
8.33%
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
11
5.56%
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
12
2.78%
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
Total:
100.00%
($0.14)
$9.17
Using the totals from above, -$0.14 / 9.17 = 1.52% just like all the experts say.Craps Dice Control
The Results:Casino Craps Dice
If you came directly here and bypassed the proof above, you either completely trust me, or you get lost easily in math and charts and tables. Either way, the results are accurate.
We surmised early on that the house edge for the Iron Cross bet would be between 1.52 percent and 5.56 percent and we were right. Betting one unit ($25 in the proof) on the Iron Cross, carries a 3.87 percent house edge when both the 2 and 12 pay double in the field bet. Lets check the answer to the original question. Is it better to bet $12 each on the 6 and 8, or $22 on the Iron Cross?
*6 and 8: $24 * 1.52% = about 36 cents lost.
*Iron Cross: $22 * 3.87% = about 85 cents lost even though less money is at risk.
Even though you are getting paid on 30 out of 36 rolls, the ’tax’ on those winnings amounts to about 2 times as much money. This is not a good bet. No matter how tempting is may be prudent players will avoid it.
In the next installment on the Iron Cross I will look at what happens when you vary the amounts bet on the individual components of the Iron Cross. I will also show the effect on the house edge of varying degrees of dice control and various betting combinations. The results should prove interesting to you.
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